It should be noted that, in the early stages of the invasion, Western aid to Kiev was timid and scanty, with honourable exceptions. AFP/AFP - Maps of Ukraine showing the number of explosions and battles identified by the NGO Acled, by locality, between 24 February 2022 and 17 February 2023 And it is certainly attributable to the courage and daring of the Ukrainians who, during the first weeks of the war, with only their own means and very little outside help, managed to halt the advance of Russian troops on several fronts, especially towards Kiev, with all the symbolism that this entailed. The failure of these initial plans is attributable not only to poor planning and execution of operations, but also to overconfidence. What was initially envisaged by Russia as a quick and short "Special Military Operation" has turned into a war that will last almost two years at the very least.Įvidently, this first miscalculation on Moscow's part will entail costs in all senses that few can imagine today. The conflict has been evolving in such a way that the most optimistic estimates already speak of its prolongation until the summer of 2023 or even the beginning of 2024. But we can try to sketch out some possible scenarios that will not be too far from reality. The answer is not easy, for if we have learned anything over the past year, it is that everything can change much more quickly than we imagine. But this conclusion, which we also reached some time ago, leads us inexorably to the question: where is this war leading us? AP/ANDRY ANDRIYENKO - The tail of a multiple rocket protrudes from the ground near the recently recaptured village of Zakitne, Ukraine, Wednesday, Nov. This in itself, proclaiming to the four winds the final objectives and their "red lines", can be considered a mistake, as it is a way of forcing oneself to achieve goals that may be impossible. And it is based on the fact that neither of the two countries in the conflict can achieve what they themselves have declared to be their strategic objectives. Because today, more than ever, that statement is more true than ever. To describe the situation one year after the outbreak of hostilities, we must refer to one of our previous articles, whose title was "An impossible victory". The reality is that twelve months later we are immersed in a war with no end in sight. We can use the simile: "It's her fault for wearing her skirt too short". The problem arises when some of those who denied Russia's intentions, after seeing how its troops entered Ukraine, went on to justify the aggression by blaming the attacked country for provoking the situation and leaving Putin no other way out. One year ago today we woke up to the news of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.ĭespite the Kremlin's moves, the unusual accumulation of forces, ammunition, equipment and supplies of all kinds, there were not few analysts who denied the possibility of armed aggression rather, a large majority did not give credibility to this option, I would like to think that they were driven by that "wishful thinking" that sometimes makes us all confuse our desires with reality.
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